2026 home sales growth cut to 7.3%, down from prior 8.9% and 9.2% forecasts, far below NAR’s projected 14% surge.
Mortgage rates expected to average 6.2% in early 2026, easing to 5.9% by year-end, but current ~6.26% rates are still limiting buyer demand.
Home price growth to cool sharply to 1.3% in 2026, while housing starts fall 2.5%, signaling continued builder caution.
Refinance activity to rise strongly, making up 36% of 2026 originations as borrowers rush to capture sub-6% rates despite slower purchase activity.
